Italian demographic landscape: unveiling the impact of residential mobility on population change

Adopting the conceptual framework of "Fast and Slow" demography, this study provides empirical evidence on the dynamics of population change in Italian provinces over the past two decades and highlights the substantial influence of migratory patterns in shaping the Italian demographic landscape. The speed of population turnover (PTR) has consistently been higher in the provinces in the Center and North of Italy, while remaining persistently lower in the South and Islands regions from 2002 to 2018. Delving into the different components of population change, namely fertility, mortality, and migratory movements, the analysis reveals that over half of the population turnover in the provinces of the Center and North can be attributed to residential mobility – either internal or external, as measured by the migration share of turnover (MST). The results show that the historical trend of high out-mobility observed in the South of Italy has now expanded to other parts of the country. Further analyses reveal a significant association between all measures of population change and economic development of the territories, namely GDP per capita. Interestingly, the provinces displaying larger growth tend to exhibit higher levels of PTR and the share of immigration within the turnover (IST), while the provinces facing depopulation are characterized by higher levels of the share of out-migration within the turnover (OST).