Afforestation priority for multiple objectives at national scale: Italy as a case study

Introduction Afforestation is increasingly recognized as a key strategy to address climate change and ecological degradation, offering multiple ecosystem services. However, strategic planning is needed to ensure that afforestation actions are ecologically effective and economically efficient by targeting areas where ecosystem service provision is most significant. Objectives In this study, we provide a workflow to prioritize afforestation areas at national scale tailored to four distinct ecosystem service goals: ecological connectivity, human health, climate mitigation, and water regulation. Methods Using Italy as a case study, we applied goal-specific analysis to areas considered suitable for afforestation, integrating geospatial datasets of environmental and social factors. For each objective, spatial indicators were combined into a priority map at 1 km resolution, subsequently aggregated into composite maps. The top 20% priority areas for each objective were identified to inform national and regional planning. Results High-priority areas to improve ecological connectivity were focused around urban centers and extensive agricultural plains. Water regulation benefits were most relevant in urbanized and vineyard landscapes, while urban areas also emerged as priorities for human health. Climate mitigation potential was highest in moist temperate and mountain regions. Overlap among goals was limited, revealing significant trade-offs across ecosystem services. Conclusions The workflow provides a replicable approach to identify goal-specific afforestation priorities across diverse landscapes. It supports coordinated strategies to enhance ecosystem service provision and restoration effectiveness at national and regional levels.