Countering autocratization from the outside: evidence from Africa

With a focus on the autocratization episodes that occurred in Africa during the 2000–2023 period, this article examines how effectively external actors help constrain the unfolding of autocratization. While the recent literature has primarily highlighted how domestic actors can resist autocratization, the role of external actors should not be overlooked, especially in a region such as Africa characterized by a peculiarly high number and variety of external interventions over time. Accordingly, we focus on two main strategies of external protection of democracy – namely, democracy sanctions and democracy aid – and discuss how their combined employment could trap autocratizing elites in between two opposite pressures. From above, as sanctions restrict elites’ access to revenue, and from below, as increased external democracy assistance empowers local democratic actors. To investigate empirically whether and how democracy sanctions and democracy aid interact with each other in countering autocratization, we apply regression methods and conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to confirm the validity of our results. Our findings show that such a combination of tools is an effective way in which external actors can help counter autocratization from abroad, provided that they are genuinely committed to accompany sanctions with substantial aid increases.