National-scale economic valuation of forest ecosystem services in Pakistan using Sentinel-2 data

Pakistan’s forests cover only 4.2% of the national territory yet deliver critical ecosystem services that remain largely unaccounted for in policy and planning. This study provides the first harmonized, country-wide assessment of timber production and carbon sequestration services using Sentinel 2 imagery and standardized valuation frameworks. A cloud-free Sentinel 2 composite for 2024 was processed at 20 m resolution to map forest cover, revealing an extent of 40,784 km2 concentrated below 2500 m a.s.l. Timber production was valued under two perspectives: forest-derived harvests (289,000 m3 yr−1; ~140 million USD yr−1) and total national supply (15 million m3 yr−1; ~7.3 billion USD yr−1), highlighting the marginal role of natural forests in Pakistan’s wood economy. Conversely, carbon sequestration emerges as a high magnitude regulating service: forests remove 2.53 million Mg CO2 yr−1, corresponding to 78 million USD yr−1 at a carbon price of 31 USD t−1 CO2. Sensitivity analysis across canopy thresholds (30%, 50%, 75%) confirms the robustness of this pattern. Despite their limited spatial footprint, Pakistan’s forests provide ecosystem services whose economic and ecological significance far exceeds their area. Findings underscore the need for integrated forest-landscape governance, improved monitoring systems, and inclusion of regulating services in national planning and carbon-finance mechanisms.