Postsecondary Education Attendance and the Business Cycle in Europe. Is the Future of Young Adults Related to the Welfare Regime?

This study explores the relationship between the economic cycle and the educational choices of young adults in a set of European countries. Using EU-SILC data from 2005 to 2021, this research focuses on individuals aged between 18 and 29 years who still live with their parents and have at least completed secondary education. The results show a general countercyclical trend in participation in postsecondary education (PSE), with a 1 percentage point (p.p.) increase in the male employment rate associated with a 0.2 p.p. decrease in the likelihood of attending PSE. This relationship varies by socioeconomic background: it is more pronounced among youth from wealthier families and weaker—and less statistically significant—among those from low-income backgrounds. The observed patterns also differ by welfare regime. In more generous systems—such as Scandinavian and corporatist regimes—trends are mainly acyclical. In Mediterranean regimes, the association is countercyclical but socially unequal, with wealthier youth more likely to attend education during downturns, whereas others face unemployment or inactivity. Liberal and postsocialist regimes have similar dynamics: economic stress tends to increase both educational participation and unemployment, especially among the most vulnerable groups.