Inferring Domestic Goat Demographic History Through Ancient Genome Imputation

Goats were among the earliest managed animals, making them a natural model to explore the genetic consequences of domestication. However, a challenge in ancient genomic analysis is the relatively low genome coverage for most samples, limiting analysis to pseudohaploid genotypes. Genotype imputation offers potential to alleviate this limitation by improving information content and accuracy in low coverage genomes. To test this, we used published high coverage (>8✕) goat palaeogenomes, imputing downsampled genomes using the VarGoats dataset (1,372 individuals) as a reference panel. Measuring concordance between imputed and high coverage genotypes, we find high concordance after filtering for common (>5%), high confidence variants, with 0.5✕ genomes reaching >0.97 concordance. There is a trade-off between coverage, genotype probability (GP) thresholds, and genotype recovery, where higher coverage and more lenient GP thresholds result in higher recovery, and a reduction in heterozygous false-positive rates with stricter thresholds. We then imputed 36 goat palaeogenomes with ≥0.5✕ coverage to examine runs-of-homozygosity (ROH) and identity-by-descent (IBD) patterns. Using a novel approach combining ROH profiles across tools, we find that among Neolithic goats, ROH increases with distance from the Zagros Mountains, suggesting a large effect of the initial dispersal of managed herds. Inbreeding levels decrease across Southwest Asia in more recent periods. IBD mirrored this pattern, with less relatedness in the early herding site of Ganj Dareh compared to higher relatedness in goats from later in the dispersal process. These findings provide insights into the genetic consequences of early goat management on demography, and confirm the utility of imputation in leveraging low coverage palaeogenomes.