The Global, Regional and National burden of cancer, 1990-2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis fort the global burden of disease study 2023

Lisa, M.F.; Jonathan, M.K.; Miranda, L.M.; Bhangdia, K.; Crist, A.; Penberthy, L.; Pritchett, N.; Acheson, A.; Deitesfeld, L.; Bhoomadevi, A.; Aalruz, H.; Abbas, N.; Maryam Abbasalipour Bashash,; Abdallah H, A.A.A.M.; Samar Abd Elhafeez,; Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla,; Mohammed Altigani Abdalla,; Wael, M.A.; Abdi, P.; Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa,; Abdissa, D.; Abdollahi, A.; Abdoun, M.; Abdous, A.; Abdullahi, A.; Abebe, M.; Abedi, A.; Syed Hani Abidi,; Abie, A.; Abiodun, O.; Richard Gyan Aboagye,; Abolhassani, H.; Ulric Sena Abonie,; Lucas Guimarães Abreu,; Aminu Kende Abubakar,; Abubakar, B.; Abu-Gharbieh, E.; Hana, J.A.; Aburuz, S.; Abu-Zaid, A.; Raghu Ram Achar,; Juan Manuel Acuna,; Lisa, C.A.; Lawan Hassan Adamu,; Isaac Yeboah Addo,; Kamoru Ademola Adedokun,; Nurudeen, A.A.; Adekanmbi, V.; Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan,; Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi,; Adiga, U.; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani,; Prince Owusu Adoma,; Leticia Akua Adzigbli,; Ahmed, M.A.; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi,; Afrashteh, F.; Afrooghe, A.; Muhammad Sohail Afzal,; Suneth Buddhika Agampodi,; Aggarwal, N.; Feleke Doyore Agide,; César Agostinis Sobrinho,; Agyemang-Duah, W.; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah,; Ahmad, A.; Ahmad, D.; Ahmad, F.; Ahmad, K.; Muayyad, M.A.; Ahmad, S.; Ahmad, T.; Ahmadi, E.; Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade,; Ahmadzade, M.; Ahmed, A.; Ahmed, A.; Gasha Salih Ahmed,; Ahmed, I.; Luai, A.A.; Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed,; Meqdad Saleh Ahmed,; Muktar Beshir Ahmed,; Ahmed, N.; Syed Anees Ahmed,; Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala,; Ajami, M.; Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe,; Akinosoglou, K.; Salah Al Awaidy,; Hanadi Al Hamad,; Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan,; Omar Al Omari,; Mohammad Al Qadire,; Yazan Al Thaher,; Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi,; Alam, K.; Alam, Z.; Alansari, A.; Fahmi, Y.A.; Laila Ismael Al-Daken,; Wafa, A.A.; Shereen, M.A.; Bezawit Abeje Alemayehu,; Al-Eyadhy, A.; Abdelazeem, M.A.; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi,; Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi,; Alhuwail, D.; Ali, A.; Endale Alemayehu Ali,; Mohammad Daud Ali,; Mohammed Usman Ali,; Ali, R.; Syed Shujait Ali,; Ali, W.; Sheikh Mohammad Alif,; Samah, W.A.; Syed Mohamed Aljunid,; Alkhatib, A.; Nihad, A.A.; Hesham, M.A.; Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem,; Hasan Yaser Alniss,; Margret Beaula Alocious Sukumar,; Mahmoud, A.A.; Mohammad, R.A.; Saleh, A.A.; Ahmad Rajeh Al-Qudimat,; Rajaa, M.M.A.; Alrawashdeh, A.; Alrimawi, I.; Sahel Majed Alrousan,; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah,; Najim, Z.A.; Altaf, A.; Alaa, B.A.; Elysia, M.A.; Alvis-Guzman, N.; Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi,; Aly, H.; Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya,; Alzoubi, A.; Karem, H.A.; Md Akib Al-Zubayer,; Masoud Aman Mohammadi,; Tarek Tawfik Amin,; Amindarolzarbi, A.; Aminnia, S.; Aminu, N.; Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq,; Amu, H.; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa,; Ancuceanu, R.; Anderlini, D.; Anil, A.; Anoushiravani, A.; Ansariniya, H.; Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa,; Anvari, S.; Anwar, S.; Sumadi Lukman Anwar,; Anwer, R.; Ekenedilichukwu Emmanuel Anyabolo,; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor,; Angela Esi Apeagyei,; Juan Pablo Arab,; Arabloo, J.; Razman Arabzadeh Bahri,; Elshaimaa, A.A.; 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Baskaran, P.; Bastan, M.; Batra, K.; Bauckneht, M.; Bayati, M.; Feyisa Shasho Bayisa,; Narasimha, M.B.; Behnam, B.; Amir Hossein Behnoush,; Behzadi, P.; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez,; Sewunet Admasu Belachew,; Gokce Belge Bilgin,; Belo, L.; Benzian, H.; Alemshet Yirga Yirga Berhie,; Amiel Nazer, C.B.; Ajeet Singh Bhadoria,; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula,; Bhakta, N.; Bhala, N.; Bharadwaj, R.; Bhardwaj, N.; Bhardwaj, P.; Prarthna, V.B.; Bhaskar, S.; Ajay Nagesh Bhat,; Bhat, V.; Bhattacharjee, S.; Gurjit Kaur Bhatti,; Jasvinder Singh Bhatti,; Mohiuddin Ahmed Bhuiyan,; Soumitra, S.B.; Bievel-Radulescu, R.; Bilgin, C.; Bisignano, C.; Mohammad Shahangir Biswas,; Biswas, M.; Bizzozero-Peroni, B.; Bjørge, T.; Bodhare, T.; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa,; Boloor, A.; Borhany, H.; Samuel Adolf Bosoka,; Alejandro Botero Carvajal,; Bouaoud, S.; Marija, M.B.; Braithwaite, D.; Brauer, M.; Brenner, H.; Linh Phuong Bui,; Burkart, K.; Busch, F.; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira,; Bustanji, Y.; Nadeem Shafique Butt,; Zahid, A.B.; Cai, G.; Luis Alberto Cámera,; Campos-Nonato, I.; Cao, S.; Cao, Y.; Capodici, A.; Carreras, G.; Carvalho, M.; Carlos, A.C.; Catalá-López, F.; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza,; Cegolon, L.; Cembranel, F.; Cerin, E.; Cernigliaro, A.; Cerrai, S.; Chakraborty, A.; Chakraborty, C.; Chakraborty, S.; Rama Mohan Chandika,; Vijay Kumar Chattu,; Anis Ahmad Chaudhary,; Chaudhuri, S.; Chaurasia, A.; Galmesa Bekana Chemeda,; Chen, H.; Chen, K.; Meng Xuan Chen,; Chichagi, F.; Chimed-Ochir, O.; Patrick, R.C.; Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres,; William C, S.C.; Choi, D.; Choi, S.; Chong, B.; Yuen Yu Chong,; Chopra, H.; Chopra, S.; Hou In Chou,; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari,; Chu, D.; Isaac Sunday Chukwu,; Chung, E.; Chung, S.; Cioffi, I.; Columbus, A.; Conde, J.; Vera Marisa Costa,; Cruz-Martins, N.; Dabo, B.; Dadras, O.; Dai, X.; Dandona, L.; Dandona, R.; D'Anna, L.; Danpanichkul, P.; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani,; Aso Mohammad Darwesh,; Das, S.; Nihar Ranjan Dash,; Dashti, M.; Dassah, C.; Davletov, D.; Fernando Pio De La Hoz,; Frances, E.D.; Edward Christopher Dee,; Deekonda, S.; Delsoz, M.; Abel Desalegn Demeke,; Denova-Gutiérrez, E.; Desai, R.; Aragaw Tesfaw Desale,; Dessie, G.; Devegowda, D.; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan,; Dhali, A.; Amol, S.D.; Dhimal, M.; Dhingra, S.; Dhungel, B.; Marcello Di Pumpo,; Luis Antonio Diaz,; Michael, J.D.; Thao Huynh Phuong Do,; Doaei, S.; Dondi, F.; Dorostkar, F.; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos,; Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi,; Doshmangir, L.; Taiwo Omotayo Dosumu,; Robert Kokou Dowou,; Menayit Tamrat Dresse,; Dube, J.; Duraisamy, S.; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye,; Dutta, S.; Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic,; Abdel Rahman Emar,; Hisham Atan Edinur,; Eftekhari, B.; Ashkan Eighaei Sedeh,; Ekholuenetale, M.; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo,; Rabie Adel El Arab,; Abdelfatteh El Omri,; Iman El Sayed,; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki,; Elahi, R.; Noha Mousaad Elemam,; Elhadi, M.; El-Huneidi, W.; Elkannishy, S.; Ahmed, O.E.; Adel, B.E.; Elsheikh, R.; Yasser Mohamed El-Sherbiny,; Elsohaby, I.; Abdelgawad Salah Abdelgawad Eltahawy,; Mohd Elmagzoub Eltahir,; Syed Emdadul Haque,; Theophilus, I.E.; Talha Bin Emran,; Endeshaw, D.; Eshrati, B.; Eslami, M.; Ezzikouri, S.; Fadavian, H.; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe,; Fahim, A.; Fahimi, S.; Fahira, A.; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev,; Fakhri-Demeshghieh, A.; Falzone, L.; Farahani, A.; Farahmand, M.; Seyed Nooreddin Faraji,; Faramarzpour, M.; Farashi, E.; Farhana, Z.; Moezalislam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris,; Pawan Sirwan Faris,; Faro, A.; Farooque, U.; Farrokhpour, H.; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi,; Fasihi, K.; Emmanuel Toluwani Fasusi,; Fattahi, H.; Feizkhah, A.; Fekadu, G.; Ferrante, D.; Ferrara, P.; Ferreira, N.; Fetensa, G.; Fischer, F.; James, L.F.; Bobirca Teodor Florin,; Olumuyiwa Shola Folayan,; Fornari, A.; Forouhari, A.; Foroutan, B.; Fotouhi, M.; Fukumoto, T.; Fukunaga, A.; Muktar, A.G.; Gajdács, M.; Gallus, S.; Adamu Usman Gamawa,; Aravind, P.G.; Gangachannaiah, S.; Gangireddy, M.; Garlasco, J.; Rupesh, K.G.; Feven Sahle Gebre,; Miglas Welay Gebregergis,; 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Ikrama Ibrahim Hassan,; Treska, S.H.; Mahgol Sadat Hassan Zadeh Tabatabaei,; Haubold, J.; Simon, I.H.; Hayat, K.; Guohua, H.; Qiang, H.; Wen-Qiang, H.; Heibati, B.; Heidari, M.; Herteliu, C.; Hesami, H.; Heydari, M.; Heydari, M.; Heydarifard, Z.; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi,; Hezam, K.; Hiraike, Y.; Hoang, M.; Holla, R.; Horita, N.; Hoseinzadeh, M.; H Dean Hosgood,; Hossain, A.; Md Mahbub Hossain,; Md Sabbir Hossain,; Mohammad Bellal Hossain,; Hosseini, M.; Ahmad Hosseinzadeh Adli,; Hostiuc, M.; Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh,; Chengxi, H.; Junjie, H.; Huang, J.; Hushmandi, K.; Hussain, J.; Hussain, S.; Hussein, D.; Nawfal, R.H.; Mohamed Ibrahim Husseiny,; Huynh, H.; Iavicoli, I.; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye,; Ibrahim, R.; Ibrayeva, A.; Francisco Javier Idalsoaga,; Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar,; Ikiroma, A.; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi,; Irena, M.I.; Milena, D.I.; Muhana Fawwazy Ilyas,; Ilyasu, S.; Mohammad Tarique Imam,; Immurana, M.; Lucius Chidiebere Imoh,; Iqbal, J.; Mustafa Alhaji Isa,; Md Rabiul Islam,; Ismail, F.; Issa, R.; Iwagami, M.; Chidozie Declan Iwu,; Iyer, M.; Jacob, L.; Jadidi-Niaragh, F.; Jafarzadeh, A.; Jahrami, H.; Jain, A.; Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun,; Jaiswal, A.; Jakovljevic, M.; Jaliliyan, A.; Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh,; Mohamed, L.J.; Qazi Mohammad Sajid Jamal,; Jamil, S.; Syed Sarmad Javaid,; Jawaid, T.; Jayarajah, U.; Jayaram, S.; Ruwan Duminda Jayasinghe,; Sun Ha Jee,; Jena, D.; Jin, S.; Jin, W.; Jokar, M.; Jost, B.J.; Joo, T.; Jose, J.; Joseph, A.; Joseph, N.; Charity Ehimwenma Joshua,; Joukar, F.; Jürisson, M.; Malik, E.J.; Jyoti, A.; Kaambwa, B.; Kabir, A.; Kabir, Z.; Kabiri, M.; Dler Hussein Kadir,; Kalan, E.; Leila, R.K.; Kamal, M.; Vineet Kumar Kamal,; Sivesh Kathir Kamarajah,; Kamireddy, A.; Ramat, T.K.; Fatemeh Kanaani Nejad,; Samuel Berchi Kankam,; Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi,; Kapoor, N.; Karajizadeh, M.; Karami, J.; Reema, A.K.; Karch, A.; Karimi, A.; Mohammad Amin Karimi,; Karimzadhagh, S.; Tomasz, M.K.; Faizan Zaffar Kashoo,; Joonas, H.K.; Kaur, N.; Mohd Adnan Kausar,; Kazemi, F.; Fekadu Abera Kebede,; Keshwani, A.; Kesse-Guyot, E.; Yousef Saleh Khader,; Khajuria, H.; Khalid, A.; Hazim, O.K.; Khalili, A.; Khalili, P.; Khalilian, A.; Khalili-Tanha, G.; Khalis, M.; Khamesipour, F.; Khan, A.; Faiz Ullah Khan,; Khan, G.; Mohammad Jobair Khan,; Moien Ab Khan,; Salman Ali Khan,; Khanmohammadi, S.; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh,; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib,; Khayamzadeh, M.; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani,; Kheradmand, D.; Feriha Fatima Khidri,; Atulya Aman Khosla,; Mohammad Ali Khosravi,; Khubchandani, J.; Kim, K.; Yun Jin Kim,; Yun Seo Kim,; Ruth, W.K.; Kisa, A.; Kisa, S.; Shivakumar, K.; Kokkorakis, M.; Kolahi, A.; Kompani, F.; Kong, J.; Anastasios Georgios Konstas,; Kostev, K.; Ashwin Laxmikant Kotnis,; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana,; Irene Akwo Kretchy,; Krishan, K.; Raja Amir Hassan Kuchay,; Kuddus, M.; Kulimbet, M.; Kumar, D.; G Anil Kumar,; Kumar, N.; Kumar, V.; Kundu, S.; Setor, K.K.; Pramod Kumar Kushawaha,; Christina Yeni Yeni Kustanti,; Kutluk, T.; Kuttikkattu, A.; Kuttybayev, A.; Grace Kwakyewaa Kyei,; Kyei-Arthur, F.; Kytö, V.; La Vecchia, C.V.B.; Muhammad Awwal Ladan,; Lahariya, C.; Daphne Teck Ching Lai,; Lai, H.; Lakanova, B.; Dharmesh Kumar Lal,; Lám, J.; Lanfranchi, F.; Lasrado, S.; Latif, M.; Lauriola, P.; Basira Kankia Lawal,; Huu-Hoai, L.; Minh Huu Nhat Le,; Nhi Huu Hanh Le,; Thao Thi Thu Le,; Ledda, C.; Lee, I.; Lee, S.; Seung Won Lee,; Shaun Wen Huey Lee,; Lee, W.; Awol Yemane Legesse,; Leigh, J.; Leong, E.; Ming-Chieh, L.; Wang-Zhong, L.; Wei, L.; Xiaopan, L.; Yongze, L.; Zhengrui, L.; Zhihui, L.; Stephen, S.L.; Lin, Q.; Liu, C.; Liu, G.; Liu, J.; Liu, L.; Liu, X.; Liu, X.; Llanaj, E.; Lubinda, J.; Angelina, M.L.; Miltiadis, D.L.; Lytvyak, E.; Hawraz Ibrahim, M.A.; Zheng Feei Ma,; Raymond Saa-Eru Maalman,; Madadizadeh, F.; Seyedeh Panid Madani,; Mafi, A.; Azzam, A.M.; Abdulahi Abdiwali Mahamed,; Nozad Hussein Mahmood,; Mansour Adam Mahmoud,; Rashidul Alam Mahumud,; Majeed, A.; Abdelrahman, M.M.; Omar, M.M.; Konstantinos Christos, C.M.; Malasala, S.; Maleki-Kakelar, H.; Malhotra, K.; Ahmad Azam Malik,; Malik, I.; Lesibana Anthony Malinga,; Deborah Carvalho Malta,; Mansouri, V.; Mansourian, M.; Mohammad Ali Mansournia,; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani,; Mao, C.; Hamid Reza Marateb,; Basma Hamed Marghani,; Marino, M.; Martini, S.; Martorell, M.; Roy Rillera Marzo,; Marzouk, S.; Mathangasinghe, Y.; Mathur, M.; Fernanda Penido Matozinhos,; Indu Liz Matthew,; Mckee, M.; Steven, M.M.; Enkeleint, A.M.; Jitendra Kumar Meena,; Meftah, E.; Mehboob, R.; Mehmood, A.; Tesfahun Mekene Meto,; Hadush Negash Meles,; Melese, A.; Max Alberto Mendez-Lopez,; Mendoza, W.; Ritesh, G.M.; Menges, D.; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha,; Tara, P.M.; Alexios-Fotios, A.M.; Sultan Ayoub Ayoub Meo,; Meretoja, A.; Tuomo, J.M.; Mestrovic, T.; Mohamed M, M.M.; Miazgowski, T.; Irmina Maria Michalek,; Ted, R.M.; Minervini, G.; Mirghafourvand, M.; Misganaw, A.; Misra, S.; Mithra, P.; Mogessie, Y.; Mohamadkhani, A.; Mohamed, J.; Mona Gamal Mohamed,; Nouh Saad Mohamed,; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad,; Mohammad, T.; Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi, S.; Mohammadi, A.; Mohammad Kazem Mohammadi,; Seyed Omid Mohammadi,; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A.; Mohammadzadeh, I.; Mohammadzadeh, Z.; Al-Kassim Hassan Mohammed,; Mohammed, M.; Mohammed, S.; Mohsenzadeh, A.; Ali, H.M.; Hossein Molavi Vardanjani,; Molinaro, S.; Momani, S.; Monasta, L.; Mohammad Ali Moni,; Moradi, Y.; Moraga, P.; Shane Douglas Morrison,; Mahmoud, M.M.; Mossialos, E.; Motaharinezhad, F.; Motappa, R.; Kimia Mozahheb Yousefi,; Msherghi, A.; Mubarak, R.; Mubarik, S.; George Duke Mukoro,; Mulita, A.; Munjal, K.; Murillo-Zamora, E.; Mushtaq, A.; Mushtaq, S.; Sherzad Ibrahim Mustafa,; Muthupandian, S.; Myung, W.; Nabavi, A.; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan,; Nagel, G.; Naghavi, P.; Naik, G.; Mukhammad David Naimzada,; Nainu, F.; Tapas Sadasivan Nair,; Hastyar Hama Rashid Najmuldeen,; Hae Sung Nam,; Nargus, S.; Nartey, Y.; Abdulqadir, J.N.; Nassar, M.; Zuhair, S.N.; Nauman, J.; Nawsherwan,; Biswa Prakash Nayak,; Md Fahad Shahariar Nayon,; Nazri-Panjaki, A.; Ndishimye, P.; Amanuel Tebabal Nega,; Negahdary, M.; Negoi, I.; Nejjari, C.; Nekouei, O.; Nepal, G.; Henok Biresaw Netsere,; Jean Claude Semuto Semuto Ngabonziza,; Cuong Tat Nguyen,; Nguyen, D.; Kieu Viet Nhi Nguyen,; Nguyen, N.; The Phuong Nguyen,; Tuan Thanh Nguyen,; Van Thanh Nguyen,; Robina Khan Niazi,; Nieddu, L.; Nikravangolsefid, N.; Niranjan, V.; Jean Marie Vianney Niyonsenga,; Chukwudi, A.N.; Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi,; Nomura, S.; Nurulamin, M.N.; Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor,; Noorafrooz, M.; Noroozi, M.; Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi,; Nugen, F.; Nurrika, D.; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam,; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam,; Oancea, B.; Vincent Adeiza Obakachi,; Ismail, A.O.; Michael Safo Oduro,; James Odhiambo Oguta,; In-Hwan, O.; Okati-Aliabad, H.; Sylvester Reuben Okeke,; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle,; Osaretin Christabel Okonji,; Andrew, T.O.; Timothy Olusegun Olusegun Olanrewaju,; Matthew Idowu Olatubi,; Folorunsho Bright Omage,; Hany, A.O.; Goran Latif Omer,; 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doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6

Background Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

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The Global, Regional and National burden of cancer, 1990-2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis fort the global burden of disease study 2023

Lisa M Force^Primo;Jonathan M Kocarnik;Miranda L May;Kayleigh Bhangdia;Andrew Crist;Louise Penberthy;Natalie Pritchett;Alistair Acheson;Lee Deitesfeld;Bhoomadevi A;Hasan Aalruz;Nasir Abbas;Maryam Abbasalipour Bashash;Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied;Samar Abd ElHafeez;Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla;Mohammed Altigani Abdalla;Wael M Abdel-Rahman;Parsa Abdi;Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa;Daba Abdissa;Arash Abdollahi;Meriem Abdoun;Arman Abdous;Auwal Abdullahi;Mesfin Abebe;Armita Abedi;Syed Hani Abidi;Alemwork Abie;Olumide Abiodun;Richard Gyan Aboagye;Hassan Abolhassani;Ulric Sena Abonie;Lucas Guimarães Abreu;Aminu Kende Abubakar;Bilyaminu Abubakar;Eman Abu-Gharbieh;Hana J Abukhadijah;Salahdein Aburuz;Ahmed Abu-Zaid;Raghu Ram Achar;Juan Manuel Acuna;Lisa C Adams;Lawan Hassan Adamu;Isaac Yeboah Addo;Kamoru Ademola Adedokun;Nurudeen A Adegoke;Victor Adekanmbi;Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan;Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi;Usha Adiga;Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani;Prince Owusu Adoma;Leticia Akua Adzigbli;Ahmed M Afifi;Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi;Fatemeh Afrashteh;Arya Afrooghe;Muhammad Sohail Afzal;Suneth Buddhika Agampodi;Navidha Aggarwal;Feleke Doyore Agide;César Agostinis Sobrinho;Williams Agyemang-Duah;Bright Opoku Ahinkorah;Aqeel Ahmad;Danish Ahmad;Faisal Ahmad;Khurshid Ahmad;Muayyad M Ahmad;Sajjad Ahmad;Tauseef Ahmad;Elham Ahmadi;Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade;Mohadese Ahmadzade;Anisuddin Ahmed;Ayman Ahmed;Gasha Salih Ahmed;Ibrar Ahmed;Luai A Ahmed;Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed;Meqdad Saleh Ahmed;Muktar Beshir Ahmed;Nesredin Ahmed;Syed Anees Ahmed;Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala;Marjan Ajami;Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe;Karolina Akinosoglou;Salah Al Awaidy;Hanadi Al Hamad;Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan;Omar Al Omari;Mohammad Al Qadire;Yazan Al Thaher;Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi;Khurshid Alam;Zufishan Alam;Amani Alansari;Fahmi Y Al-Ashwal;Laila Ismael Al-Daken;Wafa A Aldhaleei;Shereen M Aleidi;Bezawit Abeje Alemayehu;Ayman Al-Eyadhy;Abdelazeem M Algammal;Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi;Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi;Dari Alhuwail;Abid Ali;Endale Alemayehu Ali;Mohammad Daud Ali;Mohammed Usman Ali;Rafat Ali;Syed Shujait Ali;Waad Ali;Sheikh Mohammad Alif;Samah W Al-Jabi;Syed Mohamed Aljunid;Ahmad Alkhatib;Nihad A Almasri;Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi;Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem;Hasan Yaser Alniss;Margret Beaula Alocious Sukumar;Mahmoud A Alomari;Mohammad R Alosta;Saleh A Alqahtani;Ahmad Rajeh Al-Qudimat;Rajaa M Mohammad Al-Raddadi;Ahmad Alrawashdeh;Intima Alrimawi;Sahel Majed Alrousan;Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah;Najim Z Alshahrani;Awais Altaf;Alaa B Al-Tammemi;Elysia M Alvarez;Nelson Alvis-Guzman;Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi;Hany Aly;Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya;Abdallah Alzoubi;Karem H Alzoubi;Md Akib Al-Zubayer;Masoud Aman Mohammadi;Tarek Tawfik Amin;Alireza Amindarolzarbi;Shiva Aminnia;Nafiu Aminu;Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq;Hubert Amu;Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa;Robert Ancuceanu;Deanna Anderlini;Abhishek Anil;Amir Anoushiravani;Hossein Ansariniya;Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa;Saeid Anvari;Saleha Anwar;Sumadi Lukman 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Adam Bala;Wondu Feyisa B alcha;Mohammadreza Balooch Hasankhani;Soham Bandyopadhyay;Rajon Banik;Aleksandra Barac;Shirin Barati;Mainak Bardhan;Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo;Hiba Jawdat Barqawi;Amadou Barrow;Zarrin Basharat;Shahid Bashir;Afisu Basiru;Pritish Baskaran;Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan;Kavita Batra;Matteo Bauckneht;Mohsen Bayati;Feyisa Shasho Bayisa;Narasimha M Beeraka;Babak Behnam;Amir Hossein Behnoush;Payam Behzadi;Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez;Sewunet admasu Belachew;Gokce Belge Bilgin;Luis Belo;Habib Benzian;Alemshet Yirga Yirga Berhie;Amiel Nazer C Bermudez;Ajeet Singh Bhadoria;Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula;Nickhill Bhakta;Neeraj Bhala;Ravi Bharadwaj;Nikha Bhardwaj;Pankaj Bhardwaj;Prarthna V Bhardwaj;Sonu Bhaskar;Ajay Nagesh Bhat;Vivek Bhat;Shuvarthi Bhattacharjee;Gurjit Kaur Bhatti;Jasvinder Singh Bhatti;Mohiuddin Ahmed Bhuiyan;Soumitra S Bhuyan;Raluca Bievel-Radulescu;Cem Bilgin;Catherine Bisignano;Mohammad Shahangir Biswas;Monirujjaman Biswas;Bruno Bizzozero-Peroni;Tone Bjørge;Trupti Bodhare;Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa;Archith Boloor;Hamed Borhany;Samuel Adolf Bosoka;Alejandro Botero Carvajal;Souad Bouaoud;Marija M Bozic;Dejana Braithwaite;Michael Brauer;Hermann Brenner;Linh Phuong Bui;Katrin Burkart;Felix Busch;Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira;Yasser Bustanji;Nadeem Shafique Butt;Zahid A Butt;Guangyao Cai;Luis Alberto Cámera;Ismael Campos-Nonato;Si Cao;Yubin Cao;Angelo Capodici;Giulia Carreras;Márcia Carvalho;Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela;Ferrán Catalá-López;Maria Sofia Cattaruzza;Luca Cegolon;Francieli Cembranel;Ester Cerin;Achille Cernigliaro;Sonia Cerrai;Aditya Chakraborty;Chiranjib Chakraborty;Sandip Chakraborty;Rama Mohan Chandika;Vijay Kumar Chattu;Anis Ahmad Chaudhary;Sirshendu Chaudhuri;Akhilanand Chaurasia;Galmesa Bekana Chemeda;Hana Chen;Kai Chen;Meng Xuan Chen;Fatemeh Chichagi;Odgerel Chimed-Ochir;Patrick R Ching;Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres;William C S Cho;Dong-Woo Choi;Sungchul Choi;Bryan Chong;Yuen Yu Chong;Hitesh Chopra;Shivani Chopra;Hou In Chou;Sonali Gajanan Choudhari;Dinh-Toi Chu;Isaac Sunday Chukwu;Eric Chung;Sunghyun Chung;Iolanda Cioffi;Alyssa Columbus;Joao Conde;Vera Marisa Costa;Natalia Cruz-Martins;Bashir Dabo;Omid Dadras;Xiaochen Dai;Lalit Dandona;Rakhi Dandona;Lucio D'Anna;Pojsakorn Danpanichkul;Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani;Aso Mohammad Darwesh;Saswati Das;Nihar Ranjan Dash;Mohsen Dashti;Cornelius Dassah;Dimash Davletov;Fernando Pio De la Hoz;Frances E Dean;Edward Christopher Dee;Sindhura Deekonda;Mohammad Delsoz;Abel Desalegn Demeke;Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez;Rupak Desai;Aragaw Tesfaw Desale;Gashaw Dessie;Devananda Devegowda;Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan;Arkadeep Dhali;Amol S Dhane;Meghnath Dhimal;Sameer Dhingra;Bibha Dhungel;Marcello Di Pumpo;Luis Antonio Diaz;Michael J Diaz;Thao Huynh Phuong Do;Saeid Doaei;Francesco Dondi;Fariba Dorostkar;Wendel Mombaque dos Santos;Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi;Leila Doshmangir;Taiwo Omotayo Dosumu;Robert Kokou Dowou;Menayit Tamrat Dresse;John Dube;Senbagam Duraisamy;Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye;Sulagna Dutta;Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic;Abdel Rahman Emar;Hisham Atan Edinur;Behrad Eftekhari;Ashkan Eighaei Sedeh;Michael Ekholuenetale;Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo;Rabie Adel El Arab;Abdelfatteh EL Omri;Iman El Sayed;Maysaa El Sayed Zaki;Reza Elahi;Noha Mousaad Elemam;Muhammed Elhadi;Waseem El-Huneidi;Sherif Elkannishy;Ahmed O Elmehrath;Adel B Elmoselhi;Randa Elsheikh;Yasser Mohamed El-Sherbiny;Ibrahim Elsohaby;Abdelgawad Salah Abdelgawad Eltahawy;Mohd Elmagzoub Eltahir;Syed Emdadul Haque;Theophilus I Emeto;Talha Bin Emran;Destaw Endeshaw;Babak Eshrati;Majid Eslami;Sayeh Ezzikouri;Heidar Fadavian;Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe;Ayesha Fahim;Saman Fahimi;Aamir Fahira;Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev;Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh;Luca Falzone;Alireza Farahani;Mohammad Farahmand;Seyed Nooreddin Faraji;Mahsa Faramarzpour;Ebrahim Farashi;Zaki Farhana;MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris;Pawan Sirwan Faris;Andre Faro;Umar Farooque;Hossein Farrokhpour;Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi;Kiana Fasihi;Emmanuel Toluwani Fasusi;Hamed Fattahi;Alireza Feizkhah;Ginenus Fekadu;Daniela Ferrante;Pietro Ferrara;Nuno Ferreira;Getahun Fetensa;Florian Fischer;James L Fisher;Bobirca Teodor Florin;Olumuyiwa Shola Folayan;Arianna Fornari;Ali Forouhari;Behzad Foroutan;Maryam Fotouhi;Takeshi Fukumoto;Ami Fukunaga;Muktar A Gadanya;Márió Gajdács;Silvano Gallus;Adamu Usman Gamawa;Aravind P Gandhi;Shivaprakash Gangachannaiah;Mounika Gangireddy;Jacopo Garlasco;Rupesh K Gautam;Feven Sahle Gebre;Miglas Welay Gebregergis;Mesfin Gebrehiwot;Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel;Haftay Gebremedhin Gebreslassie;Gebremariam Wulie Geremew;Genanew K Getahun;Sadegh Ghafarian;Amir Ghaffari Jolfayi;Lobna Faiz Gharaibeh;Haniyeh Ghasrsaz;Fariba Ghassemi;Ramy Mohamed Ghazy;Maryam Gholamalizadeh;Nasim Gholizadeh;Elena Ghotbi;Konstantinos Giannakis;Artyom Urievich Gil;Syed Abdullah Gilani;Alem Abera Girmay;Alessandro Girombelli;Amit Goel;Anil Kumar Goel;Mahaveer Golechha;Davide Golinelli;MReza Goodarzian;Giuseppe Gorini;Changhao Gu;Shi-Yang Guan;Giovanni Guarducci;Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari;Zheng Guo;Zhifeng Guo;Bhawna Gupta;Sapna Gupta;Reyna Alma Gutiérrez;Jose Guzman-Esquivel;Adrina Habibzadeh;Farrokh Habibzadeh;Parham Habibzadeh;Tesfahun Simon Simon Hadaro;Najah R Hadi;Dariush Haghmorad;Nguyen Hai Nam;Haimanot Ewnetu Hailu;Hassen Mosa Mosa Halil;Islam M Hamad;Randah R Hamadeh;Nadia M Hamdy;Sajid Hameed;Nasrin Hanifi;Ashanul Haque;Josep Maria Haro;Ahmed I Hasaballah;Md Kamrul Hasan;S M Mahmudul Hasan;Fatemeh Hasani;Hamidreza Hasani;Alireza Hasanzadeh;Abdiwahab Hashi;Md Saquib Hasnain;Ikrama Ibrahim Hassan;Treska S Hassan;Mahgol Sadat Hassan Zadeh Tabatabaei;Johannes Haubold;Simon I Hay;Khezar Hayat;Guohua He;Qiang He;Wen-Qiang He;Behzad Heibati;Mohammad Heidari;Claudiu Herteliu;Hamed Hesami;Majid Heydari;Mojtaba Heydari;Zahra Heydarifard;Demisu Zenbaba Heyi;Kamal Hezam;Yuta Hiraike;Mai Hoang;Ramesh Holla;Nobuyuki Horita;Mehdi Hoseinzadeh;H Dean Hosgood;Alamgir Hossain;Md Mahbub Hossain;Md Sabbir Hossain;Mohammad Bellal Hossain;Mohammad-Salar Hosseini;Ahmad Hosseinzadeh Adli;Mihaela Hostiuc;Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh;Chengxi Hu;Junjie Hu;Junjie Huang;Kiavash Hushmandi;Javid Hussain;Salman Hussain;Dursa Hussein;Nawfal R Hussein;Mohamed Ibrahim Husseiny;Hong-Han Huynh;Ivo Iavicoli;Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye;Reem Ibrahim;Anel Ibrayeva;Francisco Javier Idalsoaga;Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar;Adalia Ikiroma;Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi;Irena M Ilic;Milena D Ilic;Muhana Fawwazy Ilyas;Salim Ilyasu;Mohammad Tarique Imam;Mustapha Immurana;Lucius Chidiebere Imoh;Javed Iqbal;Mustafa Alhaji Isa;Md Rabiul Islam;Faisal Ismail;Ramzy Issa;Masao Iwagami;Chidozie Declan Iwu;Mahalaxmi Iyer;Louis Jacob;Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh;Abdollah Jafarzadeh;Haitham Jahrami;Ayushi Jain;Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun;Abhishek Jaiswal;Mihajlo Jakovljevic;Ali Jaliliyan;Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh;Mohamed L Jalloh;Qazi Mohammad Sajid Jamal;Safayet Jamil;Syed Sarmad Javaid;Talha Jawaid;Umesh Jayarajah;Shubha Jayaram;Ruwan Duminda Jayasinghe;Sun Ha Jee;Diptismita Jena;Shuai Jin;Wenyi Jin;Mohammad Jokar;Jost B Jonas;Tamas Joo;Jobin Jose;Abel Joseph;Nitin Joseph;Charity Ehimwenma Joshua;Farahnaz Joukar;Mikk Jürisson;Malik E Juweid;Anupam Jyoti;Billingsley Kaambwa;Ali Kabir;Zubair Kabir;Maryam Kabiri;Dler Hussein Kadir;Ebbie Kalan;Leila R Kalankesh;Mehnaz Kamal;Vineet Kumar Kamal;Sivesh Kathir Kamarajah;Arun Kamireddy;Ramat T Kamorudeen;Fatemeh Kanaani Nejad;Samuel Berchi Kankam;Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi;Neeti Kapoor;Mehrdad Karajizadeh;Jafar Karami;Reema A Karasneh;André Karch;Aliasghar Karimi;Mohammad Amin Karimi;Sahand Karimzadhagh;Tomasz M Karpiński;Faizan Zaffar Kashoo;Joonas H Kauppila;Navjot Kaur;Mohd Adnan Kausar;Foad Kazemi;Fekadu Abera Kebede;Ariz Keshwani;Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot;Yousef Saleh Khader;Himanshu Khajuria;Asaad Khalid;Hazim O Khalifa;Anita Khalili;Pantea Khalili;Alireza Khalilian;Ghazaleh Khalili-Tanha;Mohamed khalis;Faham Khamesipour;Ajmal Khan;Faiz Ullah Khan;Gulfaraz Khan;Mohammad 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2025

Abstract

Background Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

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	Parole chiave
	
				GBD cancer; forecasts to 2050
			
	Settori scientifico-disciplinari dell'articolo (validi dal 09/05/2024)
	
				Settore MEDS-24/A - Statistica medica
			
	Data di pubblicazione
	
				2025
			
	Data ahead of print o data di stampa
	
				24-set-2025
			
	Rivista in ANCE
	
				THE LANCET
			
	DOI
	
				https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6
			
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/1184758

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