Italy’s exit from the Belt and Road Initiative: Europeanization or US leverage?

Italy’s 2023 withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative appeared to indicate renewed alignment with the EU’s increasingly critical stance on China. This article investigates whether the move constitutes a case of foreign policy Europeanization. Drawing on original elite interviews with Italian diplomats and parliamentarians, the analysis finds no evidence of preference ‘downloading’ from the EU level through strategic adaptation, socialization or learning. Instead, Rome’s decision appears to have been driven primarily by sustained US pressure and by the Meloni government’s resolve to engage in strategic political signalling towards Washington. The findings caution against the risk of unacknowledged equifinality in international relations, highlighting the importance of tracing causal mechanisms in foreign policy analysis through granular, actor-centred research methodologies.