Looking for BVER into the GRASS. Database pubblici e modelli predittivi in archeologia: il progetto BVER in dialogo con GNA

The work presented in this paper investigates the settlement dynamics of the Lower Verbano area between the Iron Age and the Middle Ages. The known archaeological sites, sourced from the public GNA database, were used along with a series of physical characteristics of the territory as variables for the calculation of an inductive predictive model. The results demonstrate the analytical potential of this methodology in the field of archaeological landscape analysis, while also highlighting its shortcomings in strictly predictive terms. The model created for the general record of archaeological sites in the GNA proves to be underperforming from a predictive standpoint, whereas heterogeneous results were obtained when the sample of sites was sectioned chronologically. The model calculated for the Iron Age shows a high discriminatory power and, when compared to the models for the subsequent periods, underscores the importance of the selection of variables for this methodological approach. The use of data from a public database revealed several deficiencies in the management of complex territorial information inherent in its structure, but also highlighted the intrinsic potential of such a tool, which we hope to develop more fully in the future.