Distributional effects of the Italian universal child benefit at local level = Effetti distributivi dell’Assegno Unico Universale a livello locale

In this paper, we evaluate the fiscal and distributional impact of the new single universal child benefit (Assegno Unico Universale – AUU) using a new spatial microsimulation model for Italy that can assess the impact of public policies at provincial level. Starting in 2022, AUU replaced previously existing instruments, taking a universalistic yet progressive approach for the first time in the history of Italian family policies. We use EU-SILC 2019 data to create representative samples at local level through the modification of sample weights based on information from the Population Census and tax returns. The results show considerable heterogeneity at provincial level, revealing a previously under-researched impact of AUU on income geography in Italy. Large differences in horizontal and vertical redistribution emerge, with lower inequality between and within provinces, and higher incomes overall for families with children, especially in the poorest decile.