Trade Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Economic Growth in Africa: What Can the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Offer?

This study examines the relationship between trade policy uncertainty (TPU), trade, and economic growth in Africa using data from 1996 to 2022. The feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) and system-GMM estimation techniques were employed for the analysis. Additionally, discourse analysis and framing theory were used to highlight the complementary impact of AfCFTA in boosting Africa’s growth. The findings reveal that TPU negatively affects Africa’s economic growth through trade flows. However, the discourse analysis shows that AfCFTA, while not explicitly addressing TPU, has provisions and tools that can mitigate its impact and stimulate economic growth. Policy recommendations are discussed.