Guess the Wild: Habitat Prediction Model for Wildcat in Italy

The European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris) is under significant threat from habitat fragmentation, environmental changes, and interaction with domestic cats (Felis silvestris catus). The two subspecies can interact with the effect of genetic introgression and disease transmission. Little is known about wildcats’ overall demographic and conservation status in Italy especially due to their elusive behavior and insufficient monitoring projects.. Camera trap images and biological samples were collected from an Italian Northeastern region (Friuli) where the presence of the wildcat has long been reported. A predictive habitat distribution model has been developed to help with ongoing trap installation/sample collection and assess the potential presence of human (and thus domestic cats) settlements in potential wild areas. The model used two types of environmental predictors: land use/land cover and topography and was designed to include all currently available wildtype phenotypic occurrences from peninsular Italy(n.69). The model included a sample of 50 phenotypically wildcat occurrencescollected in Friuli from camera traps or carcasses in 2024. The model’s prediction ability compared to the sample data will drive the next sample collection campaign for both wild and domestic cats and integrate the future genomic analysis on samples of both species.