Performance of Agroforestry versus Conventional Rice Farms under a Changing Climate: Evidence from Western Po Plain

Climate change trends and the ongoing environmental crisis are anticipated to signiϐicantly affect crop produc‑ tion, particularly rice, which is highly sensitive to these changes. This study explores adaptive strategies for ensuring long‑term food security through agri‑environmental farm management practices, focusing on a polyculture rice pro‑ duction model (POLY), which emphasizes crop diversiϐication, land races, resource management, and environmental stewardship. We compare the POLY model with local organic (ORG) and conventional (CV) models in northern Italy’s western Po Plain, particularly during the extreme climatic event of 2022 and the preceding ϐive years. Although POLY and ORG farms exhibited lower average rice yields (3.9 and 4.3 Mg/ha, respectively) compared to CV (6.7 Mg/ha), they demonstrated better resilience to the 2022 climate anomaly. POLY farms achieved yield increases of 21–22% for the top performers, while ORG farms saw a 20% increase, contrasting with a 10% decrease in CV yields. Yield variability was higher in POLY and ORG farms due to cultivar diversity, providing insurance against climatic unpredictability. Re‑ gression analysis revealed a signiϐicant correlation between total annual precipitation and CV yields, whereas POLY and ORG yields showed less sensitivity to climate ϐluctuations. Economically, POLY farms outperformed in efϐiciency, indicating a viable model for addressing agri‑environmental challenges without necessarily increasing land produc‑ tivity. This study highlights the importance of integrating such models into comprehensive strategies to mitigate the interconnected crises of environment, climate, and food supply.