When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial for policymakers to always have a firm grasp on what is the current state of the pandemic, and envision how the number of infections and possible deaths is going to evolve shortly. However, as in many other situations involving compulsory registration of sensitive data from multiple collectors, cases might be reported with errors, often with delays deferring an up-to-date view of the state of things. Errors in collecting new cases affect the overall mortality, resulting in excess deaths reported by official statistics only months later. In this paper, we provide tools for evaluating the quality of pandemic mortality data. We accomplish this through a Bayesian approach accounting for the excess mortality pandemics might bring with respect to the normal level of mortality in the population

Pandemic data quality modelling: a Bayesian approach in the Italian case / L. Ferrari, G. Manzi, A. Micheletti, F. Nicolussi, S. Salini. - In: QUALITY AND QUANTITY. - ISSN 1573-7845. - (2024), pp. 1-23. [Epub ahead of print] [10.1007/s11135-024-01913-x]

Pandemic data quality modelling: a Bayesian approach in the Italian case

G. Manzi
Secondo
;
A. Micheletti;S. Salini
Ultimo
2024

Abstract

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial for policymakers to always have a firm grasp on what is the current state of the pandemic, and envision how the number of infections and possible deaths is going to evolve shortly. However, as in many other situations involving compulsory registration of sensitive data from multiple collectors, cases might be reported with errors, often with delays deferring an up-to-date view of the state of things. Errors in collecting new cases affect the overall mortality, resulting in excess deaths reported by official statistics only months later. In this paper, we provide tools for evaluating the quality of pandemic mortality data. We accomplish this through a Bayesian approach accounting for the excess mortality pandemics might bring with respect to the normal level of mortality in the population
Pandemics; Bayesian analysis; Variance models; Time-space models
Settore SECS-S/01 - Statistica
2024
4-lug-2024
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11135-024-01913-x#Sec6
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/1070908
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