Formal childcare services and fertility: the case of Italy

This study aims at examining the fertility impact of early childhood education and care (ECEC) services for children under three in Italy. ECEC is a social investment-oriented family policy that might have more beneficial effects on fertility than passive support in terms of transfers. We first present a systematic review of studies regarding the impact of ECEC on fertility in high-income countries and then provide an empirical analysis for Italy, a country with lowest-low fertility rates and a welfare system that has traditionally provided limited support to families, especially through ECEC. We combine micro-level data from the Labour Force Survey for Italy from years 2003-2020 with information on regional indicators of public childcare and private childcare. The study employs within-region variation in ECEC over time to assess its effects on the transition to parenthood and parity progression for different groups of women and men. The present contribution indicates that both public and private childcare services have limited but positive short-term effects on fertility behaviour in Italy, contingent on specific socio-demographic groups. We discuss the possible reasons for the constrained effect of childcare on fertility and emphasise the necessity for more substantial and concerted interventions in Italy's family policies if the aim is to invert demographic trends of lowest fertility and population-ageing.