Minimal detectable change of gait and balance measures in older neurological patients: estimating the standard error of the measurement from before-after rehabilitation data thanks to the linear mixed-effects models

Background: Tracking gait and balance impairment in time is paramount in the care of older neurological patients. The Minimal Detectable Change (MDC), built upon the Standard Error of the Measurement (SEM), is the smallest modification of a measure exceeding the measurement error. Here, a novel method based on linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) is applied to estimate the standard error of the measurement from data collected before and after rehabilitation and calculate the MDC of gait and balance measures. Methods: One hundred nine older adults with a gait impairment due to neurological disease (66 stroke patients) completed two assessment sessions before and after inpatient rehabilitation. In each session, two trials of the 10-meter walking test and the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, instrumented with inertial sensors, have been collected. The 95% MDC was calculated for the gait speed, TUG test duration (TTD) and other measures from the TUG test, including the angular velocity peak (ωpeak) in the TUG test’s turning phase. Random intercepts and slopes LMMs with sessions as fixed effects were used to estimate SEM. LMMs assumptions (residuals normality and homoscedasticity) were checked, and the predictor variable ln-transformed if needed. Results: The MDC of gait speed was 0.13 m/s. The TTD MDC, ln-transformed and then expressed as a percentage of the baseline value to meet LMMs’ assumptions, was 15%, i.e. TTD should be < 85% of the baseline value to conclude the patient’s improvement. ωpeak MDC, also ln-transformed and expressed as the baseline percentage change, was 25%. Conclusions: LMMs allowed calculating the MDC of gait and balance measures even if the test-retest steady-state assumption did not hold. The MDC of gait speed, TTD and ωpeak from the TUG test with an inertial sensor have been provided. These indices allow monitoring of the gait and balance impairment, which is central for patients with an increased falling risk, such as neurological old persons. Trial registration: NA.