Current and future effectiveness of Natura 2000 network in the central Alps for the conservation of mountain forest owl species in a warming climate

Climate change is causing range shifts in many species, and impacts are predicted to be highest in mountain regions. The effectiveness of protected areas in preserving suitable habitats for target species in the face of climate change is particularly concerning, as many protected sites may lose suitable conditions for those species. We investigate the potential effect of temperature increase on the regional distribution of pygmy and boreal owl, mountain forest specialists in the Italian Alps, and the relative effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network at the regional level. We modelled current and future distributions by MaxEnt, relating occurrence to climate and land cover, considering current and future climates (changes predicted for 2050 considering representative concentration pathways of +4.5 and +8.5 W/m2). The distribution of both species is affected by climate variables and by the availability of coniferous forests, and of a few other habitat types (such as grassland, bare soil, broadleaved forest, mixed forest). The potential regional distribution of the two species will undergo a significant reduction, more marked for boreal owl (52–54 %) than for pygmy owl (23–34 %). Although Natura 2000 covers (and will cover also in the future) more than 30 % of suitable sites of both species, 64 % of the sites suitable for both species now and in the two alternative future scenarios are not included in any Site of Community Importance or Special Protection Areas (SPAs). Those sites are ideal candidate for new SPAs. Network enlargement or adequate forest management also outside protected areas is required for the conservation of those and other forest-specialist species in a warmer future.