Assessment of CSM–CERES–Rice as a Decision Support Tool in the Identification of High-Yielding Drought-Tolerant Upland Rice Genotypes

Drought is considered as one of the critical abiotic stresses affecting the growth and productivity of upland rice. Advanced and rapid identification of drought-tolerant high-yielding genotypes in comparison to conventional rice breeding trials and assessments can play a decisive role in tackling climate-change-associated drought events. This study has endeavored to explore the potential of the CERES–Rice model as a decision support tool (DST) in the identification of drought-tolerant high-yielding upland rice genotypes. Two experiments mentioned as potential experiment (1) for model calibration under optimum conditions and an experiment for yield assessment (2) with three irrigation treatments, (i) a control (100% field capacity [FC]), (ii) moderate stress (70% FC), and (iii) severe stress (50 % FC), were conducted. The results from the yield assessment experiment indicated that the grain yield of the studied genotypes decreased by 24–62% under moderate stress and by 43–78% under severe stress as compared to the control. The values for the drought susceptibility index (DSI) ranged 0.54–1.38 for moderate stress and 0.68–1.23 for severe stress treatment. Based on the DSI and relative yield, genotypes Khao/Sai, Dawk Kham, Dawk Pa–yawm, Goo Meuang Luang, and Mai Tahk under moderate stress and Dawk Kha, Khao/Sai, Nual Hawm, Dawk Pa–yawm, and Bow Leb Nahag under severe stress were among the top five drought-tolerant genotypes as well as high-yielding genotypes. The model accurately simulated grain yield under different irrigation treatments with normalized root mean square error < 10%. An inverse relationship between simulated drought stress indices and grain yield was observed in the regression analysis. Simulated stress indices and water use efficiency (WUE) under different irrigation treatments revealed that the identified drought-tolerant high-yielding genotypes had lower values for stress indices and an increasing trend in their WUE indicating that the model was able to aid in decision support for identifying drought-tolerant genotypes. Simulating the drought stress indices could assist in predicting the response of a genotype under drought stress and the final yield at harvest. The results support the idea that the model could be used as a DST in the identification of drought-tolerant high-yielding genotypes in stressed as well as non-stressed conditions, thus assisting in the genotypic selection process in rice crop breeding programs.