Long-Term Clinical Outcome in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients Followed for More Than 20 Years: The Milan Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Consortium (SMiLE) Cohort

Tackling active disease to prevent damage accrual constitutes a major goal in the management of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Patients with early onset disease or in the early phase of the disease course are at increased risk of developing severe manifestations and subsequent damage accrual, while less is known about the course of the disease in the long term. To address this issue, we performed a multicentre retrospective observational study focused on patients living with SLE for at least 20 years and determined their disease status at 15 and 20 years after onset and at their last clinical evaluation. Disease activity was measured through the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) tool and late flares were defined as worsening in one or more BILAG domains after 20 years of disease. Remission was classified according to attainment of lupus low-disease-activity state (LLDAS) criteria or the Definitions Of Remission In SLE (DORIS) parameters. Damage was quantitated through the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology damage index (SLICC/ACR-DI). LLAS/DORIS remission prevalence steadily increased over time. In total, 84 patients had a late flare and 88 had late damage accrual. Lack of LLDAS/DORIS remission status at the 20 year timepoint (p = 0.0026 and p = 0.0337, respectively), prednisone dose ≥ 7.5 mg (p = 9.17 × 10-5) or active serology (either dsDNA binding, low complement or both; p = 0.001) were all associated with increased late flare risk. Late flares, in turn, heralded the development of late damage (p = 2.7 × 10-5). These data suggest that patients with longstanding SLE are frequently in remission but still at risk of disease flares and eventual damage accrual, suggesting the need for tailored monitoring and therapeutic approaches aiming at effective immunomodulation besides immunosuppression, at least by means of steroids.