Economic development and energy consumption in the GCC: an international sectoral analysis

The relationship between economic development and energy consumption has important policy and geopolitical implications intersecting with future energy demand, economic growth and climate change. All countries in the GCC share a common goal to transition to economies less reliant on oil and gas. As part of this transition diversification and energy efficiency strategies have become major strategic priorities. If successful, such policies are likely to significantly change the relationship between domestic energy consumption and GDP. To inform discussion on this topic, this paper assesses the relationship between energy consumption at a sector level and GDP in the GCC relative to a reference group of OECD countries. While there is variation within each grouping and across sectors, the clear result is that energy consumption and economic growth are strongly linked to all sectors in the GCC. This is in contrast to the OECD group where energy and GDP have decoupled. These results highlight both the scope for further improvement in energy efficiency and the need for deeper integration of energy-intensive industry and higher value-added activities and services. We suggest a greater focus on energy productivity— or how maximum value can be obtained from energy consumption—can help guide industrial policy and increase the profile of energy efficiency efforts across the GCC.