Proposta di una metodologia per la valutazione della pericolosità vulcanica del Monte Etna

We present the key concepts for a new methodological framework to assess lava flow hazard on Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. A multidisciplinary approach is presented, based on geological data derived from the updated CARG database (National Geological Survey of Italy, SGI), analysed through Geographic Information Systems (GIS). GIS serves to perform statistical analysis on the lava flows features, as lava flow length, location of emission points, lava flow area, and eruption age, to support definition of expected events. These information were used as input for a probabilistic simulation model, devoted to the evaluation of areas invaded by lava flows emitted from defined eruptive vents. The geological database of eruptive fractures and following GIS analyses allow identification of areas, which have high probability to fed lava flows with certain characteristics. From these areas, simulated lava flows outline the portions of the volcano flanks with the highest lava flow hazard (probability to be invaded by at least one lava flow in a certain period of time).