Economic assessment of natural risks due to climate change : the case of a mountain Italian region

This paper introduces the approach used to analyse the consequences of climate change on the Adda River basin (Lombardy, northern Italy); the area offers three main reasons of interest: it is one of the biggest in Italy; it is located in the richest region in the country and, thanks to its geomorphologic heterogeneity, could be affected by a wide range of natural hazards. The northern part,Valtellina, is a mountain area characterised by several hazards. The aim is to quantitatively assess the consequences of climate change on the socioeconomic system. The quantitative cause - effect approach is applied; climate change is the cause, and the effects are the outcomes on the social system. Such effects are described as "direct effects", directly tied up with "physical damages", and "indirect effects", due to the interruption of economic activities. Particular attention will be paid to extreme events; first of all, landslides.