In-silico evaluation of giant reed productivity in a changing climate: the case of Lombardy plain in Northern Italy

Non-food energy crops are increasingly perceived as a promising opportunity to support farmers revenue while reducing the fossil fuel dependency of the agricultural sector and limiting undesired externalities. In this context Arundo donax provided the most encouraging results in Mediterranean countries because of the favorable relationship between productivity levels and inputs/cost needed to achieve them (Pilu et al., 2013). Nevertheless, few resources have been devoted to investigate the response of this crop under climate change scenarios, despite the crucial implications for mid-term planning involving both farmers and policy makers. In this study, we present an exploratory in-silico analysis of the climate change impact on giant reed productivity in the Lombardy plain, an intensive maize-based area of Northern Italy where corn is expected to be negatively affected by projected changes in thermal and pluviometric regimes (Supit et al., 2012). The goal of this research was also focused on considering the opportunity of changes in the use of marginal lands from maize to giant reed, by analyzing both the short and medium-long term outlooks.