Speculation, returns, volume and volatility in commodities futures markets

Our study contributes to the literature in two directions. First, we investigate the behaviour of futures prices returns for different energy and agricultural commodities, over the period 1986-2010. Second, we measure the market vulnerability to financial speculation for energy commodities over the period 1992-2010. We find that financial speculation is poorly significant in modelling returns in commodities futures, while macroeconomic and financial factors are relevant. Spillovers between commodities are present and correlations among commodities volatilities are large and time-varying. A higher degree of vulnerability to financial speculation characterizes the futures market for crude oil in the 2008 crisis