Forecasting the evolution of agbiotech innovation : lessons from patent data

What will be the scenario of development of agrobiotechnology in the next years? Which type of crops will be planted in the fields, what kind of new food will appear on the tables? Ten years ago the milestone document “Review of GMO’s under research and Development and in the pipeline in Europe” was published by JRC. The report was addressed to point out the scenario of GM plants in the pipeline in the next decade in the EU, with some touches on the rest of the world, according to three different time period: short, medium and long term perspective. Now in 2013 it’s time to check it up. The wide range of innovation in bioeconomy, anyway, could be explored through different methods and tools. Actually one of the most “close to the invention” analysis is based on intellectual property rights factors. This study presents an empirical investigation of what patent data can reveal about the subject of agrobiotech innovations in each of the three above categories and its evolution over time, from the initial sprout of these technologies in early 1980 until today. The hottest issues connected to this field, as cultivation in developing countries and quality traits, are examined and quantified through econometric analysis from a Country point of view. A deeper level of the analysis deal with patent families counts and its comparison with simple patent count in order to investigate similarities and differences in the dynamics that drive innovation and subsequent IP dissemination