Data show how more than 60% of the PECs formed at election t-1 are repeated in the current election. This suggests two questions. Does history of past cooperation matter in PEC formation? Is the process that brings parties to form a PEC in the current election the same whether they have already cooperated in the previous one or not? Using a random-effect dynamic probit model with transition probabilities, we have found that two parties that formed a PEC in the previous election are almost 33% more likely to form the same PEC in the current one. Second, in PEC formation, parties seem to be only concerned about the maximization of their vote share, while, in PEC continuation, their decision to form the same PEC again is exclusively policy driven.

The dynamics of pre-electoral coalition formation / L. Pinto. ((Intervento presentato al 2. convegno Italian Doctoral Conference in Political Studies tenutosi a Gargnano nel 2009.

The dynamics of pre-electoral coalition formation

L. Pinto
Primo
2009

Abstract

Data show how more than 60% of the PECs formed at election t-1 are repeated in the current election. This suggests two questions. Does history of past cooperation matter in PEC formation? Is the process that brings parties to form a PEC in the current election the same whether they have already cooperated in the previous one or not? Using a random-effect dynamic probit model with transition probabilities, we have found that two parties that formed a PEC in the previous election are almost 33% more likely to form the same PEC in the current one. Second, in PEC formation, parties seem to be only concerned about the maximization of their vote share, while, in PEC continuation, their decision to form the same PEC again is exclusively policy driven.
giu-2009
pre-electoral coalitions ; government coalitions ; party mergers; state dependence
Settore SPS/04 - Scienza Politica
Università degli Studi di Milano
Graduate School in Social, Economic and Political Studies
The dynamics of pre-electoral coalition formation / L. Pinto. ((Intervento presentato al 2. convegno Italian Doctoral Conference in Political Studies tenutosi a Gargnano nel 2009.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/148321
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