Influence of body variables in the development of metabolic syndrome : A long term follow-up study

Objectives. The body variable associated with the diagnosis of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is an elevated waist circumference (WC), although a number of other variables have been suggested. Among these, an elevated waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), ie a value higher than 0.5, that may identify abnormality, independently from height. An elevated WHtR provided the best correlation with MetS in a prior study in a large Italian population. In order to assess the validity of this conclusion, a long-term follow-up study re-examined this population, also in order to detect possible associations with cardiovascular (CV) risk. Methods and Results. 1,071 subjects with a complete follow-up of over 6 years were evaluated with a comparative assessment of the three anthropometric variables, namely WHtR, WC and body mass index (BMI). WHtR≥ 0.5 had the highest sensitivity for the identification of MetS, both in males and females (94.1% and 86.7% respectively). WHtR was of reduced specificity, occurring, yet less frequently (17.7% in males and 30% in females), in patients without MetS. By contrast, enlarged WC occurred with a lower frequency in male patients who developed MetS (30.2%) whereas in females, frequency was higher than in males (69.3%). Finally, a BMI≥ 25 kg/m2 had intermediate sensitivity and specificity regardless of gender. WC showed the highest odds ratio (2.62, 95%CI: 1.18-5.78) for the prediction of CV occurrence. Conclusion. The present study confirms WHtR as an excellent screening tool in identifying MetS carriers, but, different from reports in other countries, it shows a lower specificity in our population.