THE ECONOMIC AND CO2 MITIGATION POTENTIAL OF THE INNOVATION OF THE POWER NETWORK.A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS OF SUPER-GRIDS AND SMART-GRIDS.

Current power systems have remained qualitatively similar to how the were in the last century, especially with respect to the interaction with the end-users. Though present global challenges are putting pressure and questioning their architecture. The increasing demand for electricity - that has become an essential commodity, fundamental for all activities of today's lifestyle - coupled with the concerns about climate change and the need to improve the quality and reliability of the provision urge a modernization of the network. A modernization that needs: to be low carbon, to be reliability and security improving, and to develop new models of customer relationship. Indeed, the thesis deals with important issues that are today in the limelight, such as: i) the importance of the electricity sector in the implementation of climate change mitigation strategies, ii) the innovation of the electricity network as a strategy for reducing emissions, iii) the design of new policies of management of renewable energies and of the new services available, iv) the need to actively involve the users of the network into new styles of consumption / production of energy. All of this is evaluated in a context of evolving energy policies, where the relative long-term importance of the different power generating technologies is changing, especially after the recent events in Japan. The thesis aims at demonstrating the need to promote a qualitative transformation in the system architecture of the “grid” to make it suitable for managing the complexity of the economic scenarios and advanced services that characterize the emerging “knowledge society”, in compliance with the objectives of environmental sustainability and in response to concerns about global climate change. Indeed, because of these concerns and of social and political acceptability issues of nuclear power, as we know it today, the energy scenarios for the next few decades see the emergence of an increasingly important role for renewable energy sources. The general assumption of the thesis is that such a change in the sources of production is likely to cause a major qualitative leap in the power grid. This transformation may induce the evolution of the electricity grid from a classical architecture, top-down and hierarchical, to a more innovative architecture, that will configure the grid (more and more) as a “social ecosystem”, able to include the empowerment of all its stakeholders and to enhance, in particular, the more active role of all users of the new network services. To demonstrate and operationalize the complex nature of this change and the emerging trends, the thesis is organized into three integrated papers that develop and disentangle the system effects of the two technologies that today seem to be at the basis of the possible evolution: Super-Grids and Smart-Grids. The analysis will be conducted using a qualitative-quantitative methodological approach through simulations for both technologies and their integration. The first paper - New electricity generation networks and climate change: the economic potential of national and trans-national super-grids powered by Concentrated Solar Power - develops the analysis of Super-Grids. More in detail, it analyses the system effects and the technological and economic opportunities of transmitting large amounts of electricity over long distances, for the stabilization of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, with particular attention to the resulting geopolitical dynamics. The analysis is conducted using the simulation platform WITCH, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), able to compare this option with other mitigation opportunities, in a framework of intertemporal optimization of resources. In particular, the focus is on the production of electricity from concentrated solar power (CSP) in areas of high solar intensity in places located far from demand centres and, until now, not economically advantageous. The quantitative analysis focuses on the electricity supply made available by the Super-Grid - both domestically and for export/import - evaluating their economic, technological and CO2 mitigation potentials. We have analyzed, in particular, the EU-MENA trade case, though, the results can be expanded qualitatively to consider also the North-South European energy axis, extending the analysis of the geopolitical implications. The second paper - Smart-Grids and Climate Change. Consumer adoption of smart energy behaviour: a system dynamics approach to evaluate the mitigation potential - develops the analysis of Smart-Grids. More in detail, it analyses the system effects of engaging with consumers. More specifically, it looks at the impacts of allowing consumers to: (i) manage more actively and consciously their consumption patterns; (ii) participate to innovative contracting; (iii) generate electricity for own consumption and /or to inject into the grid. Particular interest is directed to the increase in variety of user behaviour (shift, demand response, home automation, generation), caused by the implementation of Smart-Grids, which allows: (i) to form new relationships among actors of the network, (ii) to trigger new processes of “micro production” for energy self-sufficiency to be integrated into the network; and to (iii) improve the management and optimization of the power network. In short, to transform the network into a “sensitive network” capable of opening new organizational spaces/times of action. The analysis is conducted by means of simulations of the adoption dynamics of “smart energy behaviours” by citizens, using the methodology of System Dynamics (J. Forrester) to address the complexity of the dynamics involved. The quantitative analysis focuses on the power supply made available by the change in consumption patterns and by domestic generation, in a “energy self-sufficiency” perspective and on the impacts in terms of demand, system costs and opportunities for mitigation. The qualitative analysis studies the organizational transformations, and the social and cultural evolutions induced by the new interactivity with the end-user The concept of Smart Grid connects the power system to the emerging qualitative transformations and scenarios of the “Knowledge Society” and its newly empowered “Smart Prosumer”. In the third paper - Super & Smart Grid integrated investment scenarios: Green Sustainable Energy Management Strategies & Scenarios - the complex effects of Super and Smart Grid are analysed together. The paper is divided in two parts: the first one where Super and Smart Grids are integrated in one simulation environment to conduct an in-depth economic analysis, and the second part where they are jointly evaluated and compared considering the effects of the innovation of the electricity grid on different levels: environmental, technological, economic, organizational, social and geopolitical, by means of the GEMS (Green Energy Management Strategies foe sustainable scenarios) multi-level evaluation function: GEMS = (Env, Tech, Ec, Org, Soc, GeoP). The proposal is to identify an approach for the analysis and management of the various strategies of green energy generation, that is able to grasp the complexities and interactions of the multiple effects induced by the different options. The quantitative analysis focuses on the integration of the power supply made available jointly by Super and Smart Grids. The qualitative analysis has investigated the new dynamics of empowerment among all the stakeholders involved and the possible impacts on various levels. The synergies of system integration, related to the potential mix of Super and Smart Grids, to manage the evolution of green electricity are also analysed. Concluding, the thesis started with a substantial economic and computational approach, and then was expanded to take into account qualitative aspects that govern the dynamics of the complex “social ecosystem” in play. In synthesis, we analyze the quali-quantitative system effects induced by the impact of the innovation processes in the power network, in an energy market that is not able, alone and in a classical economic perspective, to jointly optimize aspects concerning the environment, technology, organizational structures, economics, society and geopolitics, that are put into play by the introduction of these technological options. These tools are also needed to manage the inevitable conflicts of interest that will arise with the change. We propose an approach “beyond grid parity”, in the sense that we aim at analyzing a broader concept of “costs”, to: (i) identify the paths of evolution of the electrical system in the scenarios of the knowledge society, (ii) the nature and extent of the processes involved, and (iii) to assess the feasibility of accepting the challenge of a low-carbon economy based on renewable energy.